{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-16T00:27:30+00:00","notice":"이 사이트의 규칙 판정에 쓰지 않는 참고 자료다. 충족·미충족이 없고, 값의 크기나 방향을 시장 전망으로 읽지 않는다.","dealer":{"ok":true,"stale":false,"error":null,"failed_since":null,"name":"딜러 국채 순포지션(TIPS 제외)","series":"PDPOSGST-TOT","date":"2026-10-07","level_bn":444.683,"chg_4w_bn":-15.766,"chg_4w_base":"2026-09-09","chg_52w_bn":53.634,"chg_52w_base":"2025-10-08","q4w":{"from":"2019-01-01","n":406,"p5":-45.112,"p50":1.237,"p95":52.138},"flag":null,"since_2022":{"base_date":"2022-12-28","base_bn":149.809,"delta_bn":294.874,"paper_tfp_bp":11.2},"retrieved":"2026-10-16","line":"445bn · 4주 -16 (2019년 이후 p5 -45 / p95 +52) · 52주 +54","flag_text":null,"extra":["2022년 말 이후 +295bn (기준 2022-12-28 150bn)","논문 계수 대입 참고값: +295bn × 0.038bp = 약 +11.2bp (Dallas Fed WP 2613 표 2 — 딜러 보유 십억 달러당 TFP 계수, 2019~2025 월간 회귀). 계수를 곱한 산술일 뿐 이 사이트의 추정이 아니고, 논문의 딜러 보유 자료와 정의가 다를 수 있으며, 판정에 쓰지 않음"],"chart":{"key":"supply_dealer","title":"딜러 국채 순포지션(TIPS 제외)","unit":"bn","years":5,"zero":true,"threshold":null,"note":"최근 5년 · 주간(수요일 관측) · 십억 달러","source_note":"자료: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Primary Dealer Statistics (PDPOSGST-TOT) · 백만 달러를 십억 달러로 바꾼 값","notices":[],"lines":[{"key":"dealer","label":"딜러 국채 순포지션(TIPS 제외)","role":"series","series":["PDPOSGST-TOT"],"derived":false,"points":[["2021-10-13",118.9],["2021-10-20",142.2],["2021-10-27",152.2],["2021-11-03",113.5],["2021-11-10",119.5],["2021-11-17",134.4],["2021-11-24",150.9],["2021-12-01",152.6],["2021-12-08",133.1],["2021-12-15",75.6],["2021-12-22",95.0],["2021-12-29",112.6],["2022-01-05",112.1],["2022-01-12",124.4],["2022-01-19",127.4],["2022-01-26",117.8],["2022-02-02",127.6],["2022-02-09",140.9],["2022-02-16",118.4],["2022-02-23",150.0],["2022-03-02",168.7],["2022-03-09",134.0],["2022-03-16",111.5],["2022-03-23",113.0],["2022-03-30",114.3],["2022-04-06",111.7],["2022-04-13",120.8],["2022-04-20",104.3],["2022-04-27",108.3],["2022-05-04",110.8],["2022-05-11",124.2],["2022-05-18",108.9],["2022-05-25",119.3],["2022-06-01",132.1],["2022-06-08",111.8],["2022-06-15",77.4],["2022-06-22",107.8],["2022-06-29",105.7],["2022-07-06",137.6],["2022-07-13",134.7],["2022-07-20",124.2],["2022-07-27",138.7],["2022-08-03",116.3],["2022-08-10",132.2],["2022-08-17",116.2],["2022-08-24",144.0],["2022-08-31",140.0],["2022-09-07",138.0],["2022-09-14",129.0],["2022-09-21",104.1],["2022-09-28",124.6],["2022-10-05",160.9],["2022-10-12",151.7],["2022-10-19",145.4],["2022-10-26",167.2],["2022-11-02",150.4],["2022-11-09",152.5],["2022-11-16",147.2],["2022-11-23",190.6],["2022-11-30",158.6],["2022-12-07",158.7],["2022-12-14",175.8],["2022-12-21",152.5],["2022-12-28",149.8],["2023-01-04",149.2],["2023-01-11",166.6],["2023-01-18",190.4],["2023-01-25",218.6],["2023-02-01",211.5],["2023-02-08",218.5],["2023-02-15",192.5],["2023-02-22",189.6],["2023-03-01",213.8],["2023-03-08",215.3],["2023-03-15",221.9],["2023-03-22",190.9],["2023-03-29",242.9],["2023-04-05",213.3],["2023-04-12",211.6],["2023-04-19",195.2],["2023-04-26",212.3],["2023-05-03",215.1],["2023-05-10",190.4],["2023-05-17",208.4],["2023-05-24",219.3],["2023-05-31",243.2],["2023-06-07",178.3],["2023-06-14",219.5],["2023-06-21",220.4],["2023-06-28",258.4],["2023-07-05",230.6],["2023-07-12",254.1],["2023-07-19",222.8],["2023-07-26",213.0],["2023-08-02",189.4],["2023-08-09",176.4],["2023-08-16",171.4],["2023-08-23",194.0],["2023-08-30",202.0],["2023-09-06",217.0],["2023-09-13",214.5],["2023-09-20",211.2],["2023-09-27",220.8],["2023-10-04",217.5],["2023-10-11",206.6],["2023-10-18",193.8],["2023-10-25",199.8],["2023-11-01",212.0],["2023-11-08",207.9],["2023-11-15",200.6],["2023-11-22",255.3],["2023-11-29",243.6],["2023-12-06",247.2],["2023-12-13",252.4],["2023-12-20",223.9],["2023-12-27",256.4],["2024-01-03",252.2],["2024-01-10",253.8],["2024-01-17",245.5],["2024-01-24",272.0],["2024-01-31",284.4],["2024-02-07",281.4],["2024-02-14",282.0],["2024-02-21",299.0],["2024-02-28",249.2],["2024-03-06",256.4],["2024-03-13",268.6],["2024-03-20",269.7],["2024-03-27",270.7],["2024-04-03",275.5],["2024-04-10",312.6],["2024-04-17",314.3],["2024-04-24",308.3],["2024-05-01",275.4],["2024-05-08",302.9],["2024-05-15",300.0],["2024-05-22",292.2],["2024-05-29",310.8],["2024-06-05",301.4],["2024-06-12",325.4],["2024-06-19",277.7],["2024-06-26",296.5],["2024-07-03",312.7],["2024-07-10",323.1],["2024-07-17",318.2],["2024-07-24",359.1],["2024-07-31",315.2],["2024-08-07",360.6],["2024-08-14",327.6],["2024-08-21",348.7],["2024-08-28",329.7],["2024-09-04",322.8],["2024-09-11",322.9],["2024-09-18",320.1],["2024-09-25",310.9],["2024-10-02",299.8],["2024-10-09",289.2],["2024-10-16",280.6],["2024-10-23",253.8],["2024-10-30",263.5],["2024-11-06",256.5],["2024-11-13",255.3],["2024-11-20",275.2],["2024-11-27",355.9],["2024-12-04",341.8],["2024-12-11",368.8],["2024-12-18",394.0],["2024-12-25",398.1],["2025-01-01",374.6],["2025-01-08",369.5],["2025-01-15",357.2],["2025-01-22",376.3],["2025-01-29",394.5],["2025-02-05",391.4],["2025-02-12",408.9],["2025-02-19",432.2],["2025-02-26",455.3],["2025-03-05",408.2],["2025-03-12",405.8],["2025-03-19",406.7],["2025-03-26",418.0],["2025-04-02",408.7],["2025-04-09",406.9],["2025-04-16",391.8],["2025-04-23",394.7],["2025-04-30",383.2],["2025-05-07",370.3],["2025-05-14",380.2],["2025-05-21",350.2],["2025-05-28",403.7],["2025-06-04",384.4],["2025-06-11",398.7],["2025-06-18",411.4],["2025-06-25",417.4],["2025-07-02",393.7],["2025-07-09",368.2],["2025-07-16",341.7],["2025-07-23",349.0],["2025-07-30",363.0],["2025-08-06",373.7],["2025-08-13",376.7],["2025-08-20",388.3],["2025-08-27",325.5],["2025-09-03",372.8],["2025-09-10",408.2],["2025-09-17",391.0],["2025-09-24",390.4],["2025-10-01",378.3],["2025-10-08",391.0],["2025-10-15",396.4],["2025-10-22",382.1],["2025-10-29",413.3],["2025-11-05",382.9],["2025-11-12",427.1],["2025-11-19",420.6],["2025-11-26",473.2],["2025-12-03",404.8],["2025-12-10",425.6],["2025-12-17",455.4],["2025-12-24",483.5],["2025-12-31",476.7],["2026-01-07",458.8],["2026-01-14",471.3],["2026-01-21",481.9],["2026-01-28",535.4],["2026-02-04",487.5],["2026-02-11",498.7],["2026-02-18",516.6],["2026-02-25",531.1],["2026-03-04",511.5],["2026-03-11",530.5],["2026-03-18",540.0],["2026-03-25",557.1],["2026-04-01",539.6],["2026-04-08",530.7],["2026-04-15",546.9],["2026-04-22",518.4],["2026-04-29",507.7],["2026-05-06",500.4],["2026-05-13",487.4],["2026-05-20",451.7],["2026-05-27",516.7],["2026-06-03",477.9],["2026-06-10",498.6],["2026-06-17",492.4],["2026-06-24",515.6],["2026-07-01",464.1],["2026-07-08",483.0],["2026-07-15",467.2],["2026-07-22",461.6],["2026-07-29",473.2],["2026-08-05",460.3],["2026-08-12",444.7],["2026-08-19",436.4],["2026-08-26",477.6],["2026-09-02",455.2],["2026-09-09",460.4],["2026-09-16",454.6],["2026-09-23",470.8],["2026-09-30",432.0],["2026-10-07",444.7]]}]},"notices":["수준은 뉴욕 연은 프라이머리 딜러 통계(PDPOSGST-TOT, 백만 달러)를 십억 달러로 바꾼 값이고, 4주·52주 변화와 분위수, 2022년 말 이후 변화와 논문 계수 대입 참고값은 macro-regime-check가 계산한 값이다. 뉴욕 연은이 발표한 값이 아니다.","Changes, quantiles and the paper-coefficient figure are computed by macro-regime-check from the New York Fed Primary Dealer Statistics (series PDPOSGST-TOT); they are not published by the New York Fed.","© 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.","macro-regime-check (github.com/yun-macrolab) is not affiliated with the New York Fed. The New York Fed does not sanction, endorse, or recommend any products or services offered by macro-regime-check (github.com/yun-macrolab). It is not sponsored by, affiliated with, or endorsed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or FRED®."],"source":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Primary Dealer Statistics","series":"PDPOSGST-TOT","url":"https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/counterparties/primary-dealers-statistics","api":"https://markets.newyorkfed.org/api/pd/get/PDPOSGST-TOT.json","citation":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Primary Dealer Statistics, U.S. Treasury securities (excluding TIPS) net positions [PDPOSGST-TOT], retrieved from https://markets.newyorkfed.org/api/pd/get/PDPOSGST-TOT.json, October 16, 2026."}},"custody":{"ok":true,"stale":false,"error":null,"failed_since":null,"name":"해외 공적 수탁 국채(뉴욕 연은 보관)","series":"WMTSECL1","date":"2026-10-14","level_bn":2550.889,"chg_4w_bn":-57.932,"chg_4w_base":"2026-09-16","chg_52w_bn":-195.202,"chg_52w_base":"2025-10-15","q4w":{"from":"2019-01-01","n":407,"p5":-53.632,"p50":-5.59,"p95":43.031},"flag":"low","since_2022":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-16","line":"2,551bn · 4주 -58 (2019년 이후 p5 -54 / p95 +43) · 52주 -195","flag_text":"4주 변화가 2019년 이후 4주 변화 분포의 p5 아래(하위 5%)","extra":[],"chart":{"key":"supply_custody","title":"해외 공적 수탁 국채","unit":"bn","years":5,"zero":false,"threshold":null,"note":"최근 5년 · 주간(수요일 관측) · 십억 달러","source_note":"자료: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), H.4.1 (via FRED, WMTSECL1) · 백만 달러를 십억 달러로 바꾼 값","notices":[],"lines":[{"key":"custody","label":"해외 공적 수탁 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26-02-04",2786.5],["2026-02-11",2800.6],["2026-02-18",2790.6],["2026-02-25",2775.6],["2026-03-04",2766.2],["2026-03-11",2726.5],["2026-03-18",2717.2],["2026-03-25",2694.0],["2026-04-01",2731.8],["2026-04-08",2693.0],["2026-04-15",2705.3],["2026-04-22",2728.4],["2026-04-29",2735.0],["2026-05-06",2726.3],["2026-05-13",2687.1],["2026-05-20",2666.8],["2026-05-27",2679.7],["2026-06-03",2647.0],["2026-06-10",2633.4],["2026-06-17",2631.3],["2026-06-24",2636.9],["2026-07-01",2625.9],["2026-07-08",2597.3],["2026-07-15",2597.9],["2026-07-22",2622.7],["2026-07-29",2656.6],["2026-08-05",2631.1],["2026-08-12",2596.8],["2026-08-19",2586.2],["2026-08-26",2615.2],["2026-09-02",2601.2],["2026-09-09",2590.1],["2026-09-16",2608.8],["2026-09-23",2597.5],["2026-09-30",2582.3],["2026-10-07",2565.5],["2026-10-14",2550.9]]}]},"notices":["수준은 FRED의 WMTSECL1(연준 H.4.1, 백만 달러)을 십억 달러로 바꾼 값이고, 4주·52주 변화와 분위수는 macro-regime-check가 계산한 값이다."],"source":{"name":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) (H.4.1, via FRED)","series":"WMTSECL1","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WMTSECL1","citation":"Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Memorandum Items: Custody Holdings: Marketable U.S. Treasury Securities: Wednesday Level [WMTSECL1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WMTSECL1, October 16, 2026."}}}